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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-09-22T07:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-09-22T07:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17801/-1
CME Note: Faint CME only seen COR2A in SW. Possible source: filament eruption at ~S25W12 seen in AIA 304 ~2021-09-22T05:00Z, accompanied by dimming and post-eruptive loops(AIA 193 and EUVIA 195). Originally logged in CME Scoreboard with observed time of 2021-09-22T05:0Z, changed to reflect DONKI entry time 2021-09-22T07:53Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-26T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 2.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17800/1
Model Inputs:
2021-09-22T07:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=15.0, Lat.=-17.0, Speed=287.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2021-09-22T19:33Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Glancing blow at Earth with Shock Arrival Time = 2021-09-26T18:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=2

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO B with estimated shock arrival time 2021-09-26T18:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210922_193300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210922_193300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210922_193300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210922_193300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210922_193300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210922_193300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210922_193300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210922_193300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210922_193300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210922_193300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210922_193300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210922_193300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210922_193300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210922_193300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210922_193300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210922_193300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 89.65 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2021-09-23T00:21Z

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